Parent and child outcomes before and after the expansion of funded ELC in Scotland

Background

From August 2021 the entitlement to funded early learning and childcare (ELC) in Scotland increased from 600 to 1140 hours per year for all three- and four-year-olds and for eligible two-year-olds. This means families can access up to 30 hours of funded ELC per week in term time, or around 22 hours spread across the year. Two-year-old children are currently eligible for funded ELC if they are care-experienced or have a parent who is, or if a parent receives qualifying benefits. The expansion of funded ELC aimed to improve children's development, increase parents and carers' opportunities for work, study, or training, and improve family wellbeing. The Scottish Study of Early Learning and Childcare (SSELC) was set up to assist with the evaluation of the expansion.

About the study

The SSELC collected data between 2018 and 2024 from children and parents, with the aim to measure and compare outcomes before and after the expansion. Phases 1 to 3 (2018/2019) collected baseline data on samples of children and their parents accessing up to 600 hours of funded ELC. During 2023/2024, Phases 4 to 6 of the SSELC collected ‘post-expansion’ data on samples of children and their parents accessing up to 1140 hours of funded ELC. The SSELC did not include children who were not accessing any funded ELC.

It is important to note that between Phases 3 and 4 the COVID-19 pandemic occurred. Findings therefore have to be viewed in the context of COVID-19 and the associated protective public health measures, and other societal changes around this time.

Participants were recruited via local authority, private and voluntary sector group ELC settings across most local authorities. Children who were eligible for funded ELC at age two (‘Eligible 2s’) were surveyed at both age two and age three (Phases 1, 3, 4 and 6). Phases 3 and 6 also collected data on a nationally representative sample of all three-year-olds, as a comparison (the ‘Comparator 3s’). Phases 2 and 5 surveyed four- and five-year-olds about to leave ELC (the ‘ELC Leavers’).

The SSELC comprised three components to measure child and parent outcomes:

1. an assessment of sampled children’s development by their ELC keyworker,
2. a survey of the parents of sampled children,
3. observations by Care Inspectorate staff of the quality of experience within ELC settings attended by sampled children.

A fourth component, a survey of setting managers, was included at Phases 4 and 5.

Findings

Use of ELC and childcare

Post-expansion, most children in the sample were receiving their increased allocation of funded hours. Further, fewer families were paying for additional hours, and the average number of additional hours paid for decreased.

• Following the expansion, the proportion of families of ELC Leavers paying for additional hours at their main setting fell from 28% to 20%. The proportion paying for additional hours at another ELC setting also fell, from 15% to 10%.
• The total amount of formal ELC used by families of ELC Leavers increased by 8 hours a week on average, from 22.2 hours pre-expansion (16.5 hours of funded ELC and 5.7 of unfunded) to 30.3 post-expansion (27.3 hours of funded ELC and 3.0 hours of unfunded).
• All income groups made savings post-expansion, but it was the lowest income group who proportionally made the largest savings, as they paid for less than a quarter of the hours they had done pre-expansion, compared with just over half the hours for other income groups.
• The proportion of ELC Leavers using informal childcare, predominantly grandparents, fell from 39% to 30% post-expansion. This was most noticeable in the lowest income group, where the fall was from 24% to 9%, compared with 44% to 33% in other income groups.

Children’s outcomes

The SSELC provides no evidence to date of progress on outcomes related to children’s cognitive and language development that the expansion of funded ELC was seeking to improve. These findings are broadly consistent with data from multiple other sources that have observed the worsening of children’s development outcomes across Scotland and the rest of the UK over this period, which included the COVID-19 pandemic and associated protective public health measures.

• The proportion of ELC Leavers whose communication skills were identified as on schedule (i.e. of a level that might be expected for their age) post-expansion (82%) was lower than pre-expansion (88%).
• For those who were eligible for funded ELC at age two (the Eligible 2s), communication skills were measured at both age two and age three. Pre-expansion, 46% were on schedule at age two and 50% at age three. Post-expansion figures were similar: 40% at age two and 48% at age three.

The SSELC surveys provide mixed evidence on social, behavioural and emotional development. While they provide no evidence of a positive change for ELC Leavers to date, they demonstrate a positive association between the expansion of funded ELC and the social, behavioural and emotional development of eligible two-year-olds.

• The proportion of ELC Leavers recorded as having few or no social, behavioural and emotional difficulties has decreased since the expansion of funded ELC, from 85% to 78%.
• For the Eligible 2s, there was a large improvement post-expansion in social, behavioural and emotional development following a year of funded ELC, to the point that there was no difference between the Eligible 2s at age three and the Comparator 3s. Pre-expansion, the percentage of Eligible 2s with few or no difficulties increased from 44% to 58% after a year of ELC. Post-expansion, it increased from 41% to 62%.

Analysis was carried out to look in more detail at what other factors made it more likely for ELC Leavers to be largely on schedule in their development.

• Factors associated with being largely on schedule included the child being a girl, the child being older, the parent respondent having a degree, the parent respondent being in work or training, and the family paying for additional hours at the ELC setting.
• Factors associated with not being on schedule to this extent included the parent respondent having no formal qualifications, the household being in the lowest income quintile, the parent respondent being from a non-white ethnic group, the child having a long-term health condition, and the child attending a setting with a low environment rating.

Parent outcomes

There is clear evidence of an increase in the proportion of mothers/female carers of children receiving funded ELC who were in employment, training or full-time education since the expansion of funded ELC. This increase was during a period of high employment rates and substantial change in the labour market (including the impacts of the pandemic and increased home working). However, the employment rate of all women aged 16 to 64 in Scotland remained relatively constant over the same period. This was also the case for the employment rate of women of similar ages to most of those using funded ELC (e.g. age 25-34 and 35-49).

• For mothers of ELC Leavers, the proportion in work, training or full-time education increased from 76% pre-expansion to 84% post-expansion.
• The proportion in employment increased from 69% to 78% and in full-time employment increased, from 29% to 37%.

The SSELC data provide no evidence for an improvement in parental wellbeing since the expansion of funded ELC from 600 to 1140 hours. This is in line with data from the Scottish Health Survey, which shows that average mental wellbeing for all adults has not returned to pre-pandemic levels.