Changing attitudes to how Scotland is run

The Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) survey is a high-quality annual survey which has been running since the advent of devolution in 1999. For twenty years it was, like the parallel British Social Attitudes survey, conducted as a random probability face-to-face survey in people’s homes. As a result, it provided a unique record of how attitudes towards the governance of Scotland were evolving under devolution.

However, the onset of the COVID pandemic led to SSA being conducted primarily over the telephone in 2021. In 2023 the survey was undertaken online using a random probability push-to-web design. Despite the change of mode, methodological analysis of the 2023 survey shows that its findings are both robust and comparable with previous years.

In this blog we highlight some of the key changes in attitudes uncovered by the 2023 survey (on which a fuller report can be found here). Three in particular stand out – a sharp drop in the level of trust in the Scottish Government, a marked increase in dissatisfaction with Scotland’s health service, and an increased level of concern with the state of Scotland’s economy.

2023 was, of course, a difficult year for the SNP-led Scottish Government. Nicola Sturgeon’s decision to resign as First Minister triggered a divisive leadership contest, while her successor as First Minister, Humza Yousaf, was much less popular. In March 2023, Redfield and Wilton found that 42% approved or strongly approved of Nicola Sturgeon’s overall performance since becoming leader of the SNP and First Minister, whereas in the same company’s poll in May 2024, only 17% approved or strongly approved of the job Humza Yousaf was doing. Meanwhile, shortly before she resigned, 43% told Ipsos they had a favourable view of Nicola Sturgeon, whereas a year after he had been in office, only 29% said the same of Humza Yousaf. At the same time, shortly after Ms Sturgeon’s resignation, the police investigation into SNP finances known as Operation Branchform became much more serious with the arrest (and subsequent release) of both Ms Sturgeon and her husband, the SNP’s former Chief Executive, Peter Murrell. That development cast a serious shadow over everything the party tried to say and do. 

These developments have influenced people’s perceptions of how they are being governed. In the 2023 SSA, just under half (47%) said they trusted the Scottish Government ‘just about always’ or ‘most of the time’ to act in Scotland’s best interests. Not only was this down from 61% in 2019, but it is the lowest level recorded by SSA since the survey began (see Figure 1). That said, the level of trust in Scotland’s devolved government is still far higher than that of the UK Government; still only 21% of Scots say they trust the UK Government to work in Scotland’s best interests.

The more critical view of the Scottish Government also appears to be reflected in people’s evaluation of devolution more broadly. In our latest survey, less than half (45%) felt that having the Scottish Parliament gives ordinary people more say in how Scotland is governed, down from 54% in 2019 and the lowest proportion since 2010. Just under two-fifths (38%) thought having the Scottish Parliament makes no difference while 14% reckoned it gives ordinary people less say – by far the highest proportion to give that response since the question was first asked in 1999.

As in the rest of the UK, the health service in Scotland has struggled to cope with the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. In March 2024, the total number of people waiting for inpatient and outpatient treatments in Scotland reached over 690,000, the highest figure ever recorded, and twice as many as at the start of the pandemic. Less than half (43%) of those waiting for an outpatient appointment were seen within the target time of 12 weeks, while only one in three of those waiting for an inpatient admission were being seen within that time frame. 

This decline in performance is reflected in record levels of dissatisfaction with the NHS. Only 23% said they were ‘very’ or ‘quite’ satisfied with the way in which the NHS is run, down from 64% in 2019. In contrast, 52% said they were ‘very’ or ‘quite’ dissatisfied compared with just 20% in 2019. As Figure 2 shows, never before has the level of satisfaction with the health service recorded by SSA been so low.

This trend is, however, far from unique to Scotland. For as Figure 2 also shows, the decline in satisfaction mirrors that recorded by the British Social Attitudes survey across Britain as a whole. Indeed, at 24%, the proportion of people living in England who are satisfied with the NHS is just as low as it is north of the border, while the 53% figure for those who are dissatisfied is also equally high.

The problems faced by the health service are, of course, not the only legacy of the pandemic. Together with the Russian invasion of Ukraine it also bequeathed a stuttering economy and declining living standards. That backdrop is reflected in people’s responses when they were presented with a list of eight possible governmental objectives ranging from reducing inequality to improving people’s health and asked which one they thought should be the Scottish Government’s highest priority. A record 42% chose improving the economy, up from just 23% in 2019 and even higher than the 37% recorded in 2010 in the wake of the financial crash of 2008-9. Meanwhile, a Survation poll from January 2023 found that only 25% of people in Scotland were satisfied with the way Scotland’s economy is run whereas 47% were dissatisfied. At the same time, Redfield & Wilton in May 2024 found that only 24% approved of the Scottish Government’s performance on the economy, whereas 40% disapproved. It is not surprising that the economy has become a high priority due to the perception of a noticeable fall in the standard of living since the pandemic. In SSA 2023 respondents were asked whether they thought the general standard of living in Scotland had changed over the previous year, where 83% thought it had fallen over the last year – a large increase from 50% who thought this in 2019.

Although these trends are far from unique to Scotland, the last few difficult years have evidently taken their toll on people’s perceptions of how they are being governed, their evaluation of the health service, and their level of concern about the economy. In July’s General Election, voters north of the border swung away from the incumbent SNP administration, just as they did the Conservative government at Westminster and the devolved Labour government in Wales. Following his party’s heavy losses, John Swinney said his party “needs to heal its relationship with the people of Scotland”. The task before him is evidently a considerable one.