Public attitudes to a new EU referendum

The only constant in politics is change. Sir Keir Starmer’s shifting stance on Brexit is a good example. Back in 2019, as Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary, Starmer was an ardent advocate for holding a second referendum and for his party to campaign to be within the EU in such a vote. Five years on, after leading Labour to a majority at the 2024 general election, Starmer has declared that he has no intention of seeking to rejoin the EU, arguing that reopening the Brexit debate would bring about turmoil and uncertainty. But is this in line with what voters want, especially among those who backed his party at the general election? Do voters support the prime minister’s position of moving on and ‘making Brexit work’ or do they want to revisit the European issue with another referendum? 

Over eight years have passed since the vote to leave the EU in 2016. Much has happened since then – not least the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and subsequent cost-of-living crisis. Perhaps, as a result, Brexit no longer matters much to voters, particularly as compared with issues such as health and the economy. On the other hand, polling has suggested that voters, including those who backed leaving the EU, are not particularly happy with how Brexit has turned out. Around six in ten feel it has ‘gone badly’ and over a half of the public think that in hindsight Britain was wrong to vote to leave the EU.

To assess where the public currently stand on having another EU vote, in July this year respondents to the random-probability NatCen Opinion Panel, based at the National Centre for Social Research, were asked: 
Do you think there should or should not be a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union in the next 5 years?

Among the public as a whole, just over half (51%) think there should be a new referendum within the next five years – more specifically, a third (29%) believe there ‘definitely’ should be a vote, while around a quarter (23%) say there ‘probably’ should be one. Meanwhile, just 36% of Britons think there should not be another vote – 22% ‘definitely’ and 13% ‘probably’. Thirteen per cent said they don’t know – excluding this group, the proportions are 59% in favour of another EU vote and 41% against. 
 

In practice, people’s attitudes towards holding another EU referendum largely depend on whether they support or oppose Brexit itself. Two in three (67%) of those who voted Remain in 2016 believe there should be another vote in the next five years, while just a quarter (23%) are opposed. In contrast, among those who voted Leave, nearly two-thirds (64%) are against having another ballot while just over a quarter (28%) are in favour.

However, it is people’s current views on EU membership, rather than their 2016 vote, that especially divides opinion on whether to have another EU referendum within the next five years. Among those who say they would vote to rejoin, as many as three-quarters (76%) support holding another EU vote, while just 14% believe there should not. Conversely, around eight in ten (79%) of those who would vote to stay out of the EU think there should not be a new vote, while only around one in seven (15%) feel there should. The views of rejoiners and those who back staying out are almost the mirror image of each other. The reason why there is majority support for holding another vote is because rejoiners now outnumber Brexiteers by, according to the polls, around 57% to 43%. 

But what of those who backed Labour at the recent general election, helping propel the party back into power after 14 years in opposition? How much appetite do they have for a new referendum given Starmer’s opposition to revisiting the issue.

In fact, two-thirds (66%) of Labour voters think there should be another EU vote within the next five years – 39% ‘definitely’ and 27% ‘probably’. Only a quarter (26%) say there ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ should not be a new vote. This strong support for another referendum among Labour supporters reflects the fact that, despite the party’s stance on the issue, 78% of those who voted for the party in 2024 would vote to rejoin the EU. 

While Starmer’s stance may have its merits, it stands in contrast to what much of the public – and certainly many Labour supporters - think about revisiting Brexit. Revisiting the UK’s membership of the EU may not currently feature very highly on Keir Starmer’s list of priorities, but over the coming years, pressure from Labour voters who favour holding another vote might come to prove more difficult to resist.