Significant questions raised about the future of Britain’s democracy

Even before the recent rise in support for the Reform party, significant questions about the future of Britain’s traditional pattern of two-party politics were raised by the outcome of the 2024 General Election. This is the key conclusion of new in-depth analysis of the health of Britain’s democracy, published today by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) in its latest British Social Attitudes (BSA) report.

The election failed to reverse record low levels of trust and confidence in how Britain is governed, confirming that the traditional bases of support for Conservative and Labour have either weakened or disappeared, and left a legacy of record low levels of support for the electoral system that has traditionally underpinned two-party politics.

Low levels of trust and confidence

• Just 19% of the British public think the current system of governing Britain needs little or no improvement; unchanged from the record low registered before the election
• Only 12% trust governments to put the country’s interest before their party’s interests ‘just about always’ or ‘most of the time’, even lower than the previous record low of 14% registered in 2023
• High dissatisfaction with the NHS, economy, and Brexit continues to undermine trust and confidence

Erosion of traditional bases of party support

• The traditional class-based support for parties has diminished, with age and education now being more decisive factors
• Labour did not reconnect with its traditional base of working class voters, many of whom it had lost in 2019. Only 30% of those in semi-routine and routine occupations voted Labour, compared with 42% of those in professional and managerial jobs
• Age and education have displaced class as the principal demographic dividing line in British politics. Only 6% of 18-24 year olds voted Conservative, compared with 36% of those aged 65 and over. Just 5% of graduates voted for Reform, compared with 25% of those with less than an ‘A’ level.
• How people voted reflected their views about ‘culture wars’ or ‘equalities’ issues just as much as it did where they stood on the traditional debate between ‘left’ and ‘right’. Those with liberal attitudes on equalities issues mostly voted Labour (53%), Liberal Democrat (17%) or Green (14%). Among those with more conservative views, the most popular parties were the Conservatives (32%) and Reform (28%).

Support for electoral reform

• A record 60% of survey respondents now say that we should change the electoral system ‘to allow smaller political parties to get a fairer share of MPs’. Only 36% now say that we should keep the current system ‘to produce effective government’
• For the first time, a majority of supporters of all parties favour electoral reform. Support stands at 55% among Labour supporters, 52% among Conservatives, and 56% of Liberal Democrats. It is as much as 90% and 78% respectively among Green and Reform supporters.
• For the first time also, over half (53%) prefer a coalition government over single-party government (41%)

Alex Scholes, Research Director at the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen), said: “The 2024 election highlighted significant challenges to Britain's traditional two-party system and the result has yet to restore public trust and confidence. With voter trust at an all-time low and a growing support for electoral reform, the political landscape is poised for potential transformation. Whether this will lead to substantive changes in how the country is governed remains to be seen.”