Low trust in governments drives growing demand in electoral reform

Last June the Labour Party won the General Election in what would seem to be, on first examination, a fairly conventional and comprehensive victory. The electorate voted out the incumbent Conservative Government and saw it replaced by a Labour one, who now hold a clear majority of 412 seats in the House of Commons. On the other hand, the victory was far from conventional in that Labour secured their majority on the back of the lowest vote share won by a single party post-war government, in an election with the second lowest turnout since 1885. Meanwhile, votes for parties challenging the two-party system (such as Reform UK and the Greens) reached historic highs, and the election was conducted in the context of historically low levels of trust and confidence in government.

Published as part of the annual British Social Attitudes (BSA), the ‘British democracy: A health check’ report examines the implications of the last General Election in detail. Some of the key questions we address as part of the report are a) what, if any, effect did the General Election have on levels of trust and confidence in government? b) what were the attitudinal drivers of the historically low turnout witnessed at the last election? and c) how have attitudes changed, if at all, to the system we use to elect our MPs

Traditionally, General Elections have been associated with an increase in the level of trust and confidence in governments. Voters can hold their representatives to account, have their voices heard at the ballot box, and, if desired, replace a government with one they prefer. Figure 1 shows how the level of trust in British Governments have changed since 1986:

Figure 1: Level of trust in British governments (1986-2024)

Source: British Social Attitudes, except 1987(2), 1997(2), British Election Study; 2021, 2024(1): NatCen Panel

Levels of trust and confidence have declined markedly over time, from 40% trusting governments ‘just about always’ or ‘most of the time’ in 1986 to just 12% doing so in 2024. As can also be seen – levels of trust and confidence have typically risen after General Elections – though this trend has diminished steadily over time. The 2024 election was no different, and although the final outcome may have been decisive – it did little to restore levels of trust in governments.

Might this lack of trust and confidence help to explain why turnout at the General Election was low? Although a relationship may be expected between the two, the BSA data show the explanation lies elsewhere.

Firstly – those with little to no interest in politics stayed at home in a way they did not in 2019. Although the proportion who said they had ‘a great deal’ or ‘quite a lot’ of interest in politics (38%) remained broadly as it was in 2019, only 28% of those with ‘no interest at all’ in politics turned out to vote in 2024, a drop of 16 points since 2019. 

Secondly, only two-thirds (67%) of people said it’s everyone’s duty to vote in our latest survey, down from 78% when the question was last asked after the 2019 election. As shown in Table 1, this group are more likely to vote (92%) than others – so the fact there were fewer of them in 2024 than in 2019 helped to depress turnout. Also, only 49% of those who felt ‘people should only vote if they care who wins’ voted at the last election, a drop of 21 points since 2019, indicating that they cared less about the result this time around.

Thirdly, there was a decline in the proportion of people identifying with a political party. This group are more likely to vote than those who do not. In our latest survey, 86% of those who declared a party identity voted at the 2024 election, while only 55% of non-identifiers did so. However, the overall proportion of people who do not declare a party identity has increased: 40% now say they do not feel closer to any of the parties, up from 29% in 2019.

The drop in turnout therefore was less to do with low levels of trust and confidence, and more to do with a failure to motivate the politically disengaged to go to the polls.

Finally, the 2024 election not only had a low turnout but was also highly disproportional, with Labour gaining 63% of Parliamentary seats on just 34% of the vote. Has this affected our views on electoral reform? As shown in Figure 2, there has been a shift over time:

Figure 2: Attitudes towards electoral reform (1983-2024)

We ask respondents whether they would be in favour of changing the voting system for General Elections or keeping it as it is. In our latest survey, this figure reached a record high, and 60% now support changing the voting system, an increase of seven percentage points since 2023. Views on this issue are associated with levels of trust and confidence: 68% of those who ‘almost never’ trust governments say they would like to change the voting system, compared with 41% who trust them all of the time. For the first time, a majority of the supporters of each of the main political parties think the voting system should be changed.

Although Labour may have had good cause to celebrate in the wake of the General Election, there are also plenty of causes for concern. Britain remains a country with very low levels of trust and confidence in both its governments and politicians. The low turnout of the election revealed a significant proportion of the electorate who are disengaged and a party system that is struggling to command the attention of voters, while the appetite for a change in the voting system that delivered Labour their commanding majority has never been higher. Turning the tide on these issues will be no mean feat, but one which Labour will need to tackle directly in their return to office.