Heightened perception of security threats increases support for defence spending

The latest British Social Attitudes (BSA) report, published today by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen), reveals that increased public concern about potential threats to world peace posed by other countries, including above all Russia, have resulted in a marked increase in support for defence spending. 

However, there are important political differences in levels of support for increased spending. Conservative and Reform supporters are more likely to favour increased spending than those who back Labour or the Greens.
Meanwhile, following the advent of the Trump administration, there has been a sharp increase among supporters of all parties in the perception that the United States poses a security threat.

Increased perception of threat

• Nearly everyone (90%) regards Russia as a serious threat to world peace in the next ten years
• Iran (78%), North Korea (77%), Israel (73%), and China (69%) are also widely regarded as posing a serious threat
• In contrast, in 1994, shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, only 41% thought Russia was a serious threat, while in 2005 only 52% said the same of North Korea, 48%, Israel, and just 28% China
• In our regular BSA survey last autumn only 36% thought the US was a serious threat. Now in a follow-up survey conducted in the spring of 2025, 72% take that view

High acceptance of defence spending

• 40% now support increased spending on military and defence, twice the proportion (20%) that would prefer to see a reduction
• These figures are little changed since 2016 – but represent a 23 point increase in support for more spending since 1996 and a 12 point increase since 2006
• Nine percent believe defence should be the top priority for extra government spending, prioritising it over areas such as education or health

Support for more defence spending linked to perceptions of threat

• Those who think that Russia, China, Iran or North Korea are a serious threat are more likely than those who do not to back more defence spending
• For example, 49% of those who think China is a serious threat support more spending compared with just 20% of those who do not
• Similarly, 45% of those who think Iran is a serious threat support more spending compared with 19% of those who do not

Party differences

• Conservative (83%) and Reform UK (79%) supporters are more likely than Labour (65%) and Green (54%) supporters to regard China as a serious threat. In contrast, there are few differences between them in their view of Russia
• Labour and Green supporters are more likely than those who back the Conservatives or Reform UK to consider the USA a serious threat. In our follow-up survey this spring, 96% of Green and 81% of Labour supporters said the USA is a threat, compared with 68% of Conservatives and 41% of those backing Reform
• In the same survey, 51% of Reform supporters and 58% of Conservatives said Israel is a serious threat to peace, compared with 77% of Labour supporters
• Conservative (61%) and Reform UK (67%) supporters predominantly favour increased military spending, while Green Party supporters (42%) are more likely to want a reduced defence budget
• Labour supporters are divided on the issue of military spending. While 28% support an increase in military spending, almost as many, 27%, back a decrease

Gianfranco Addario, Research Director, National Centre for Social Research (NatCen), says: “The escalation of recent international conflicts is clearly reflected in the attitudes of the British population, who have never been so supportive of military spending and so concerned about serious security threats since the British Social Attitudes survey first addressed the subject in 1985. Perception of the US as a security threat has increased since the 2024 presidential elections and the first 100 days of the Trump administration, reaching an all-time high. The perception of the US as a serious threat to global peace is particularly high among Green Party and Labour supporters. The Labour government's approach to addressing these concerns, particularly in navigating internal party divisions while aligning with public sentiment, will be crucial in determining its success in managing the country's security and defence policies.”