Brexit now plays key role in shaping attitudes towards Scottish Independence

The latest analysis paper from the Scottish Centre for Social Research (ScotCen) and What Scotland Thinks highlights how, 10 years on from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, attitudes towards Brexit have become deeply intertwined with where people stand on Scotland’s constitutional status. 

Back in 2014, those who were favourable towards Britain’s EU membership were no more or less likely to vote Yes for independence than those who were sceptical about the EU. Now, those who would vote to be part of the EU are around three times more likely than those who backed Brexit to say they would vote Yes in a second independence referendum.

Using data from the Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) survey and the Scottish Centre for Social Research (ScotCen)’s mixed mode probability panel, today’s analysis also shows that, on most issues, voters are more likely to think that Scotland would be better off inside the EU but outside the UK, than inside the UK but outside the EU.

Support for Independence

• Support for Scottish Independence has risen significantly since the 2014 independence and 2016 EU referendums. Between 1999 and 2014, support for Independence fluctuated between 23% and 35%. Since 2019 support has consistently been around 50%.

Independence and EU Membership

• The decision to Leave the EU has had an adverse impact on support for remaining in the UK. Shortly after the EU referendum, those who would vote Remain in a second referendum were just four points more likely than those who would back Leave to say they would vote Yes to Independence. Now the gap is as much as 39 points.  

Perceptions of Scotland's future in the EU vs. the UK

• When presented with a choice between remaining in the UK and staying outside the EU or leaving the UK and rejoining the EU, more Scots believe across a variety of measures that being part of the EU would be more beneficial for Scotland. 
• For instance, 53% believe that an independent Scotland within the EU would have better access to external markets whereas just 18% feel that staying in the UK would be advantageous for trade.
• Similarly, 46% say that being in the EU and outside the UK would be better for Scotland’s economy, while just 25% reckon being in the UK and outside the EU would be more advantageous.
• However, the difference is smaller on other issues, such as taxes and the NHS. While 25% say taxes would be lower if Scotland were in the EU, 23% believe they would be lower in the UK.

Professor Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at the Scottish Centre for Social Research, commented: “Today’s analysis provides a unique record of how attitudes towards Scotland’s constitutional status have evolved over the past 25 years. And it is clear that the UK’s decision to leave the EU has had a significant impact on public attitudes towards Independence.

However, in practice, there has been little debate about Scotland’s constitutional status since the implementation of Brexit. We cannot be sure what view Scots would take about independence when they have heard more about the issues at stake. What though is now clear is that, if and when it does happen, the debate about being in the UK or part of the EU is now potentially crucial to how voters will come to regard Scotland’s constitutional future.”

For more information please contact:

Emileigh Spurdens, Communications Manager
t:020 7549 8506 e: emileigh.spurdens@natcen.ac.uk

Notes to editors: 

• The Scottish Centre for Social Research (ScotCen) is an integral part of the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen). Based in Edinburgh, we have decades of experience of listening to the public and making sure their voice is heard. (https://natcen.ac.uk/ScotCen)
• This research is supported in part by a research grant from the Economic and Social Research Council as part of its ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’ initiative. 
• The fieldwork for Scottish Social Attitudes 2023 was carried out between 12th September and 31st October 2023, the final sample size was 1,574. 
• Fieldwork for the March 2023 NatCen Panel was carried out between 9th March and 10th April 2023 and the final sample size was 1,184.